Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192020 201024 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.70    113.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.3  25.7  29.7  33.7  34.4  36.0  37.7  35.7  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  15.0  15.0  17.0  46.0   5.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.1  97.9  91.5  74.4  67.7  44.3  14.0  36.7  N  N  N  U  U  U VU  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    26.0  17.0  -8.0 -17.0 -15.0   0.0  11.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  66.0  66.0  69.0  68.0  69.0  70.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.0  10.0   6.0   5.0   3.0   1.0   1.0   2.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%