Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192020 201024 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.70    111.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.4  31.0  34.2  36.9  39.7  36.7  38.2  35.1  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  19.0  36.0  79.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         88.5  68.0  74.3  71.1  10.9  11.8  18.4  23.4  N  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0   0.0  -5.0 -20.0  21.0  33.0   6.0  33.0  U  U  U VU  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  69.0  66.0  64.0  65.0  67.0  68.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   2.0   3.0   2.0   1.0   4.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons