Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192020 201024 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.60    110.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.1  33.0  33.7  35.1  39.5  35.9  35.5  34.4  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  42.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]         74.3  74.3  63.6  24.7  19.0  39.7  54.2  74.3  U  U  U VU VU  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0  -5.0 -20.0   3.0  35.0  27.0  14.0  56.0  U  U VU  U  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  65.0  63.0  63.0  64.0  67.0  66.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons