Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192020 201025 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.60    109.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.8  30.9  35.4  40.2  40.7  38.5  37.3  31.5  N  U  U  U VU  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   73.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  34.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         81.0  43.7  29.7  40.0  53.2  64.4  76.1 120.0  N  U VU  U  U  U  U  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0  -3.0  -6.0  13.0  27.0   8.0  16.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  67.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  70.0  69.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   5.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   2.0   2.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons