Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192020 201025 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.50    107.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.7  34.9  42.2  45.2  42.9  38.3  50.7  56.4  N  U VU VU VU  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         52.8  30.1  27.7  31.2  28.7  29.1  43.4  55.7  U VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     1.0   5.0  19.0  28.0   9.0  32.0  40.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  76.0  76.0  79.0  80.0  76.0  75.0  80.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  -3.0   1.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons