Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192020 201025 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.70    107.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     70.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.3  37.0  37.8  44.1  40.8  44.5  52.1  56.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  40.0  59.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]         53.4  44.0  57.4  69.8  80.4  91.5 113.5 140.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     5.0  19.0  28.0  -1.0  24.0  33.0  91.0  51.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  71.0  72.0  73.0  76.0  75.0  76.0  79.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  -1.0  -9.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons