Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192020 201026 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.00    106.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.5  32.4  35.2  37.7  42.3  54.0  59.1  59.1  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  61.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]         47.8  61.6  74.8  79.3  85.4  93.6 126.5 126.5  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    17.0  20.0  -6.0  -1.0  31.0  38.0  44.0  44.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  71.0  72.0  70.0  74.0  77.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  -2.0  -7.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons