Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202020 201020 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.20    139.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        42.4  41.4  47.6  47.7  48.7  65.0  86.8 111.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   45.0  43.0  45.0  45.0  38.0  16.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 122.9  71.7  13.5  F  F  F  F  F  N  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     1.0  -7.0  11.0  27.0  43.0  23.0 183.0 274.0  U  U  U  U  N  U VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  44.0  43.0  43.0  48.0  63.0  77.0  71.0  U VU VU VU  U  N  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0   2.0   3.0  10.0  19.0  86.0 303.0  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        2.0%        1.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.7%        0.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%