Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202020 201021 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.00    139.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        41.4  46.2  45.4  42.2  54.0  77.4 119.5 119.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  29.0  30.0  31.0  20.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 118.6  85.0  34.6  34.6  F  F  F  F  N  N VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -23.0   1.0   7.0  19.0  29.0 119.0 190.0 190.0 VU  U  U  U  N  F VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  46.0  44.0  47.0  59.0  75.0  65.0  65.0 VU VU VU VU  U  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   4.0   7.0   8.0  27.0 143.0-151.0-151.0  N  N  N  U VU VU VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%