Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202020 201021 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.10    139.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        46.0  43.9  46.7  55.7  64.7  90.3 100.9  66.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  23.0  32.0  30.0   9.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        139.3 139.3 140.0 134.6 106.2  45.8  17.1  16.3  F  F  F  F  N  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     2.0  31.0  64.0  63.0 115.0 210.0 236.0 142.0  U  N  N  N  F VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  48.0  50.0  56.0  71.0  64.0  53.0  58.0 VU  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   6.0   8.0  12.0  33.0  73.0 244.0  -8.0  N  N  U  U VU VU VU  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%