Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202020 201022 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.00    139.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        58.8  55.6  60.8  66.4  75.1  75.1  75.1  75.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  14.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        132.9 122.4  99.6  86.7  50.8  50.8  50.8  50.8  F  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     4.0  31.0  74.0 128.0 154.0 154.0 154.0 154.0  U  N  N  F VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  64.0  67.0  67.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  30.0  26.0  14.0  33.0  32.0  32.0  32.0  32.0 VU VU  U VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons