Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP212020 201024 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.50    131.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.1  24.7  26.5  27.5  27.6  38.6  36.1  36.3  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  101.0 109.0 131.0 142.0  86.0  65.0  25.0  57.0  F  F VF VF  N  N  U  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 125.1  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    66.0  55.0  53.0  76.0  97.0 107.0 103.0 103.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  75.0  76.0  78.0  82.0  83.0  82.0  81.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.6%        3.7%        3.6%
 25kt / 24h       19.3%       29.2%       24.2%
 30kt / 24h       11.6%        9.6%       10.6%
 35kt / 24h        3.9%        9.5%        6.7%
 40kt / 24h        1.9%        9.5%        5.7%
 45kt / 36h       19.4%       38.9%       29.1%
 55kt / 36h       14.2%       15.9%       15.1%
 55kt / 48h       26.5%       15.6%       21.0%
 70kt / 48h       24.5%       14.6%       19.6%
 65kt / 72h       32.5%       22.4%       27.5%