Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP212020 201024 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.20    129.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.7  26.0  26.3  26.9  32.5  33.7  24.9  26.7  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  118.0 119.0 119.0 114.0  79.0  29.0  63.0  63.0  F  F  F  F  N  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  89.6 134.3 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    55.0  53.0  76.0  95.0 107.0 113.0  96.0 107.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  76.0  78.0  79.0  81.0  77.0  74.0  72.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0  -4.0  -5.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.7%        6.8%        6.2%
 25kt / 24h       31.3%       45.1%       38.2%
 30kt / 24h       16.4%       19.8%       18.1%
 35kt / 24h        9.2%       19.8%       14.5%
 40kt / 24h        1.8%       17.4%        9.6%
 45kt / 36h       22.1%       52.7%       37.4%
 55kt / 36h       14.8%       27.0%       20.9%
 55kt / 48h       27.2%       24.4%       25.8%
 70kt / 48h       24.4%       19.8%       22.1%
 65kt / 72h       44.7%       35.0%       39.8%