Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP212020 201024 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.20    128.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     64.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     54.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.2  27.6  32.2  30.4  29.8  36.0  40.6  43.5  N  N  U  N  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  137.0 129.0  96.0  57.0  56.0  28.0  69.0  59.0 VF VF  F  N  N  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 101.2 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   101.0  84.0  86.0  83.0 123.0 110.0 127.0 102.0  F  N  F  N  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  82.0  82.0  84.0  83.0  82.0  84.0  83.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0   2.0   5.0   2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        3.6%        2.7%
 25kt / 24h       15.2%       28.2%       21.7%
 30kt / 24h        5.6%        9.8%        7.7%
 35kt / 24h        1.4%        9.8%        5.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        7.4%        4.2%
 45kt / 36h       10.1%       30.5%       20.3%
 55kt / 36h        4.4%       10.4%        7.4%
 55kt / 48h       16.9%        8.6%       12.7%
 70kt / 48h        9.6%        7.4%        8.5%
 65kt / 72h       24.1%       14.6%       19.4%