Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP212020 201024 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.50    127.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     55.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.7  31.9  32.9  31.4  34.4  37.5  39.1  38.8  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  115.0  98.0  68.0  60.0  68.0  66.0  51.0  37.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    83.0  86.0  83.0  99.0 120.0 118.0 125.0  90.0  N  F  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  82.0  84.0  84.0  83.0  82.0  80.0  78.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.5%        4.5%        4.0%
 25kt / 24h       18.8%       30.0%       24.4%
 30kt / 24h        8.3%       11.9%       10.1%
 35kt / 24h        2.6%       11.9%        7.3%
 40kt / 24h        1.9%        9.4%        5.6%
 45kt / 36h       10.0%       27.3%       18.6%
 55kt / 36h        4.4%        9.3%        6.8%
 55kt / 48h       17.2%       11.3%       14.3%
 70kt / 48h        7.9%        8.5%        8.2%
 65kt / 72h       18.5%       14.7%       16.6%