Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP212020 201025 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.30    126.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     96.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     93.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.3  27.7  31.2  32.3  34.1  36.6  37.7  37.8  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   76.0  76.0  30.0  12.0  49.0  58.0  36.0  23.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 109.6 109.6 115.0 112.0 114.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   110.0  94.0 110.0 127.0 108.0 125.0 106.0  90.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  85.0  83.0  83.0  82.0  81.0  81.0  83.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0   5.0   4.0   1.0   0.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       35.6%       25.3%       30.4%
 25kt / 24h       55.5%       64.2%       59.8%
 30kt / 24h       35.3%       52.4%       43.9%
 35kt / 24h       26.2%       52.4%       39.3%
 40kt / 24h       21.0%       45.8%       33.4%
 45kt / 36h       27.0%       50.6%       38.8%
 55kt / 36h       12.4%       28.0%       20.2%
 55kt / 48h       20.9%       20.2%       20.6%
 70kt / 48h        6.5%       16.1%       11.3%
 65kt / 72h        5.7%       13.5%        9.6%