Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP212020 201025 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.40    124.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     96.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     72.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.4  33.2  35.2  35.5  35.6  39.0  37.8  43.5  N  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   63.0  59.0  35.0  52.0  72.0  51.0  33.0  24.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0  69.4  80.5 105.0 105.0 105.0  99.6  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    94.0 110.0 127.0 119.0 106.0 130.0  97.0  84.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   85.0  83.0  83.0  82.0  81.0  83.0  81.0  84.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0   5.0   3.0   2.0   1.0  -2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       52.0%       28.5%       40.3%
 25kt / 24h       50.4%       47.2%       48.8%
 30kt / 24h       33.0%       35.3%       34.2%
 35kt / 24h       29.3%       35.3%       32.3%
 40kt / 24h       15.3%       28.1%       21.7%
 45kt / 36h       26.1%       39.1%       32.6%
 55kt / 36h       11.8%       18.8%       15.3%
 55kt / 48h       14.0%       13.5%       13.8%
 70kt / 48h        5.3%        9.6%        7.4%
 65kt / 72h        2.5%        7.1%        4.8%