Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP212020 201025 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.50    123.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]    100.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     99.00            VF
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.5  37.5  37.6  38.3  40.4  44.0  41.5  35.7  U  U  U  U  U VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0  13.0  42.0  54.0  54.0  40.0  22.0  20.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         79.4  66.2 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  99.3  87.9  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   108.0 106.0 106.0  86.0  95.0 105.0  97.0  67.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  84.0  82.0  81.0  82.0  82.0  83.0  85.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       21.8%        8.1%       14.9%
 25kt / 24h       30.9%       31.5%       31.2%
 30kt / 24h       19.4%       23.4%       21.4%
 35kt / 24h       19.4%       23.4%       21.4%
 40kt / 24h       12.0%       17.5%       14.7%
 45kt / 36h       13.0%       18.6%       15.8%
 55kt / 36h        3.9%        6.6%        5.2%
 55kt / 48h        2.9%        5.1%        4.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        2.4%        1.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        2.0%        1.0%