Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP212020 201025 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.20    121.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]    100.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     99.00            VF
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        44.9  41.8  43.0  41.7  43.9  38.7  39.4  31.3 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   56.0  74.0  72.0  62.0  51.0  27.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.7 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  92.3  20.0  10.4  N  N  N  N  N  N VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    74.0  85.0  64.0  70.0  89.0 111.0  89.0  75.0  N  F  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  82.0  81.0  80.0  80.0  77.0  78.0  78.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   1.0   7.0   5.0   1.0  -6.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.5%        2.1%        3.3%
 25kt / 24h        9.5%       10.9%       10.2%
 30kt / 24h        4.2%        5.6%        4.9%
 35kt / 24h        3.4%        5.6%        4.5%
 40kt / 24h        1.1%        3.2%        2.1%
 45kt / 36h        2.4%        3.5%        3.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        1.7%        1.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%