Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP212020 201026 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.30    120.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     96.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     80.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.0  36.0  34.8  39.9  42.6  47.5  36.4  26.0  U  U  U  U VU VU  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   45.0  57.0  54.0  44.0  16.0   5.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  35.8  -2.3  20.9  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    78.0  58.0  86.0  85.0  99.0  97.0  70.0  35.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   85.0  84.0  80.0  79.0  78.0  76.0  76.0  80.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   4.0   1.0   5.0  -4.0  -3.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       15.2%        6.6%       10.9%
 25kt / 24h       24.0%       24.2%       24.1%
 30kt / 24h       15.1%       18.4%       16.7%
 35kt / 24h       14.9%       18.4%       16.7%
 40kt / 24h        8.2%       13.9%       11.0%
 45kt / 36h        6.3%        5.3%        5.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.8%        1.2%        1.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        1.3%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%