Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP212020 201026 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.30    117.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     97.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.0  33.7  42.3  43.5  47.3  37.4  36.4  38.8  U  U VU VU VU  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   52.0  43.0  32.0  20.0   9.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  28.0 -31.5 -21.0 -17.3  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    62.0  85.0  95.0  97.0  99.0  64.0  40.0  14.0  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  81.0  79.0  77.0  76.0  75.0  82.0  83.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   3.0   2.0   0.0   3.0   9.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       30.4%       10.5%       20.4%
 25kt / 24h       20.8%       17.8%       19.3%
 30kt / 24h       14.6%       12.6%       13.6%
 35kt / 24h       14.6%       12.6%       13.6%
 40kt / 24h        7.9%        8.4%        8.2%
 45kt / 36h       10.3%        3.2%        6.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        0.8%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%