Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP212020 201026 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.20    115.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     98.00            VF
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.0  42.7  40.7  41.5  44.7  34.7  39.2  28.5  U VU VU VU VU  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   57.0  54.0  45.0  27.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  67.3  -7.6  -5.0   3.8  23.6  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    85.0  95.0  98.0 107.0  83.0  65.0  31.0  32.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  79.0  77.0  76.0  77.0  78.0  82.0  80.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0   3.0   1.0   0.0   6.0   5.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       28.3%        8.3%       18.3%
 25kt / 24h       21.6%       16.6%       19.1%
 30kt / 24h       13.7%       11.0%       12.3%
 35kt / 24h       12.9%       11.0%       12.0%
 40kt / 24h        8.2%        7.1%        7.7%
 45kt / 36h        5.0%        1.7%        3.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%