Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP212020 201027 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.30    114.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     98.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     96.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.3  42.5  42.2  42.3  38.4  36.8  29.1  25.3  U VU VU VU  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0  19.0  14.0   7.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         65.0  65.0  62.0  22.7 -15.0 -11.3  -1.8  64.3  U  U  U VU VU VU VU  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   119.0 123.0 137.0 110.0  70.0  23.0   8.0  29.0  F  F VF  F  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  79.0  78.0  75.0  77.0  84.0  87.0  87.0  F  F  F  F  F  F VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -3.0   5.0   3.0   9.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       17.7%        4.2%       11.0%
 25kt / 24h        7.3%        5.1%        6.2%
 30kt / 24h        4.0%        2.6%        3.3%
 35kt / 24h        3.0%        2.6%        2.8%
 40kt / 24h        2.6%        1.5%        2.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%