Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP212020 201027 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.90    112.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     96.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     91.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.2  43.3  41.0  38.7  42.5  31.5  21.2  22.1  U VU VU  U VU  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0   7.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         52.3  10.0 -30.9 -33.6 -34.8 -34.8 -31.6  -9.1  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   145.0 113.0  77.0  57.0  21.0  -1.0  28.0  31.0 VF  F  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  80.0  79.0  77.0  82.0  82.0  81.0  71.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0  -9.0   0.0   2.0   0.0   4.0  -1.0  -5.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.0%        0.7%        2.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons