Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP212020 201028 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90    109.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     65.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     50.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.9  39.1  37.5  38.9  34.9  22.3  21.3  23.2  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]          9.3  -4.1  -6.7  -5.9  -7.6   0.7 -12.4  22.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    93.0  54.0  48.0  12.0   4.0  -4.0  13.0  19.0  F  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  83.0  80.0  82.0  85.0  83.0  79.0  73.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0   5.0  10.0  13.0   5.0  14.0  20.0  11.0  F  N  U  U  N  U VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons