Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP212020 201028 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.40    108.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     49.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.0  36.0  39.1  42.6  25.5  22.7  24.6  19.8  U  U  U VU  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  40.0  68.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]          0.8   3.4   5.4   6.2  16.8  68.5  95.0  95.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    54.0  47.0  13.0  19.0  17.0  44.0  35.0  18.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  79.0  83.0  84.0  83.0  82.0  77.0  76.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0  12.0  13.0   7.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  -8.0  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons