Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP212020 201029 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30    102.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      2.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.4  28.0  25.8  24.1  19.2  17.7  16.3  26.2  U  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        107.7 116.2 112.7  87.9  90.4 131.5 114.4  77.7  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0  33.0  22.0   1.0  -4.0  -1.0   2.0  11.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  83.0  80.0  82.0  76.0  75.0  69.0  66.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  27.0  19.0  17.0  22.0  13.0   5.0   2.0   1.0 VU VU  U VU  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons