Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP212020 201030 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.80     98.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.1  12.2  11.3  11.5   9.9  13.0  11.1   9.7  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0  21.5  36.0  55.0  49.0  48.0  50.0  53.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    54.0  42.0  38.0  25.0  17.0  33.0  33.0  39.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  82.0  78.0  80.0  75.0  74.0  70.0  68.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   2.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  -0.5   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        9.0%        4.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        2.5%        1.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        2.2%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.2%        1.1%
 45kt / 36h        3.4%       29.0%       16.2%
 55kt / 36h        3.0%       11.1%        7.1%
 55kt / 48h       20.6%       13.4%       17.0%
 70kt / 48h       13.4%       18.7%       16.0%
 65kt / 72h       38.5%       52.6%       45.6%