Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222020 201028 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.60    138.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     59.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.7  18.7  19.8  16.7  20.1  25.5  41.2  48.8  F  N  N  F  N  N VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  105.0 106.0 107.0 110.0 109.0  90.0 101.0 104.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    20.0  18.0  32.0  40.0  44.0  25.0  -8.0  20.0  U  U  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  66.0  61.0  58.0  60.0  61.0  61.0  63.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -7.0 -12.0  -9.0  -9.0 -10.0 -24.0 -27.0  N  F  F  F  F  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.1%       14.1%       12.1%
 25kt / 24h       37.8%       58.6%       48.2%
 30kt / 24h       24.3%       36.0%       30.2%
 35kt / 24h       16.9%       36.0%       26.4%
 40kt / 24h       16.9%       36.0%       26.4%
 45kt / 36h       35.2%       68.0%       51.6%
 55kt / 36h       29.1%       48.1%       38.6%
 55kt / 48h       49.9%       24.7%       37.3%
 70kt / 48h       24.7%       45.6%       35.2%
 65kt / 72h       56.4%       48.8%       52.6%