Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222020 201028 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.60    137.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     58.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     44.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.7  19.7  17.1  19.9  26.9  33.8  44.9  54.1  N  N  F  N  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  111.0 108.0 106.0 106.0  97.0  91.0 107.0  72.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    18.0  32.0  41.0  32.0  43.0  13.0  16.0  28.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  61.0  58.0  58.0  60.0  60.0  62.0  60.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0 -12.0 -10.0 -10.0 -12.0 -18.0 -27.0 -26.0  F  F  F  F  F VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       30.1%       28.4%       29.3%
 25kt / 24h       59.3%       73.3%       66.3%
 30kt / 24h       48.0%       60.1%       54.0%
 35kt / 24h       36.1%       60.1%       48.1%
 40kt / 24h       36.1%       60.1%       48.1%
 45kt / 36h       46.4%       73.9%       60.1%
 55kt / 36h       37.9%       58.5%       48.2%
 55kt / 48h       48.8%       24.7%       36.7%
 70kt / 48h       24.7%       46.3%       35.5%
 65kt / 72h       39.9%       37.9%       38.9%