Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222020 201029 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.50    136.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     48.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.4  13.6  10.5  12.2  17.0  27.2  32.3  40.8  F  F  F  F  F  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  113.0 114.0 113.0 112.0  98.0  94.0 108.0  53.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    37.0  40.0  19.0  37.0  21.0  20.0  17.0  11.0  N  N  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  62.0  58.0  65.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   2.0  -1.0  -1.0  -5.0 -12.0  -8.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       63.1%       46.3%       54.7%
 25kt / 24h       81.1%       84.8%       83.0%
 30kt / 24h       81.1%       83.0%       82.1%
 35kt / 24h       73.5%       83.0%       78.2%
 40kt / 24h       73.5%       83.0%       78.2%
 45kt / 36h       82.1%       83.5%       82.8%
 55kt / 36h       82.1%       75.5%       78.8%
 55kt / 48h       51.1%       62.9%       57.0%
 70kt / 48h       33.1%       54.6%       43.8%
 65kt / 72h       54.4%       45.5%       49.9%