Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222020 201029 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.80    135.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.3  10.7  12.0   9.9  21.0  24.7  33.8  46.6  F  F  F  F  N  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  117.0 114.0 116.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 112.0  70.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    40.0  19.0  37.0  30.0  23.0   4.0  12.0  20.0  N  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  61.0  58.0  62.0  61.0  57.0  58.0  53.0  N  N  U  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0  -3.0   1.0  -3.0  -4.0 -10.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       89.0%       66.2%       77.6%
 25kt / 24h       97.6%       92.0%       94.8%
 30kt / 24h       97.6%       92.0%       94.8%
 35kt / 24h       97.6%       92.0%       94.8%
 40kt / 24h       97.6%       92.0%       94.8%
 45kt / 36h       91.8%       79.4%       85.6%
 55kt / 36h       91.8%       70.2%       81.0%
 55kt / 48h       51.1%       63.2%       57.1%
 70kt / 48h       32.1%       44.3%       38.2%
 65kt / 72h       51.8%       30.5%       41.1%