Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222020 201029 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.70    134.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     76.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     63.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.7  13.1  13.4  17.5  18.5  23.9  17.5  13.8  F  F  F  F  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  102.0  92.0  84.0  77.0  72.0  68.0  64.0  54.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  84.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    35.0  53.0  77.0  54.0  23.0 -16.0 -12.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  56.0  59.0  60.0  55.0  58.0  61.0  64.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   3.0   5.0   7.0   8.0   9.0   2.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       93.9%       73.1%       83.5%
 25kt / 24h       99.3%       91.6%       95.4%
 30kt / 24h       99.3%       91.6%       95.4%
 35kt / 24h       99.3%       91.6%       95.4%
 40kt / 24h       99.3%       91.6%       95.4%
 45kt / 36h       88.3%       75.7%       82.0%
 55kt / 36h       77.7%       66.0%       71.8%
 55kt / 48h       50.4%       52.1%       51.3%
 70kt / 48h       24.7%       31.1%       27.9%
 65kt / 72h       29.9%       26.0%       27.9%