Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222020 201030 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30    132.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    35.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     58.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     62.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.3  17.5  21.1  22.2  29.3  32.8  32.0  27.2  F  F  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   99.0  93.0  95.0 105.0 115.0  50.0  36.0  34.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  -0.7  40.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    19.0  18.0  20.0  32.0  10.0  18.0  10.0  13.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  64.0  59.0  58.0  60.0  62.0  57.0  59.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0  13.0   0.0   6.0  10.0  14.0  10.0   4.0  N  U  N  N  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       59.1%       18.1%       38.6%
 25kt / 24h       27.1%       17.2%       22.1%
 30kt / 24h       27.1%        8.7%       17.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%