Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222020 201031 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.70    125.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   170.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   170.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     92.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     89.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.7  49.1  43.3  36.6  39.8  43.5  48.3  42.2 VU VU VU  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   60.0  55.0  42.0  65.0  50.0  34.0  18.0  13.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         -5.0  -8.0 -31.5  -5.0 -10.4 -14.9 -31.5 -44.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    24.0  47.0  69.0  77.0  26.0  24.0  28.0   7.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  65.0  61.0  63.0  64.0  63.0  64.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0   3.0   6.0  -3.0 -11.0 -15.0 -12.0  N  N  N  N  N  F VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%