Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222020 201101 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.50    123.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -50.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     88.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     80.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        46.6  42.5  41.2  38.2  38.3  40.5  45.2  44.4 VU VU VU  U  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   9.0  44.0  42.0  32.0  12.0  13.0   5.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         47.0  25.5  50.0  50.0  40.1  27.4  11.0   6.1  U VU  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    42.0  48.0  56.0  38.0   4.0  30.0  17.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  65.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  65.0  63.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   4.0   0.0  -3.0  -5.0 -15.0 -18.0  N  N  N  N  N  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%