Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222020 201101 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.10    121.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -70.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.5  40.0  39.9  37.0  33.6  33.3  29.3  35.3  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   43.0  42.0  35.0  24.0  19.0  18.0  15.0  10.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.5 105.0 105.0  97.3  90.7  88.6  84.4  78.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    56.0  69.0  75.0  64.0  36.0  41.0  20.0  33.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  66.0  66.0  63.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   3.0   1.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%