Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222020 201101 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70    119.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     10.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        43.5  43.2  39.6  37.2  40.7  40.1  46.9  44.9 VU VU  U  U VU  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   65.0  53.0  45.0  37.0  28.0  13.0   8.0   3.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 109.3 102.3 100.1  93.6  76.2  64.6  64.6  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    63.0  76.0  34.0  19.0  36.0  21.0  45.0  16.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  63.0  65.0  66.0  68.0  64.0  67.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0  -3.0  -3.0 -10.0 -10.0 -13.0 -11.0  N  N  N  N  F  F VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%