Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222020 201103 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.80    115.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.1  30.1  30.0  33.0  44.7  43.7  46.1  40.9  N  N  N  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  17.0   9.0   4.0  18.0   1.0   7.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        117.9 109.4 101.6  96.2  89.3  92.7  89.3  58.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0   9.0   1.0   8.0  28.0  10.0  39.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  72.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  73.0  72.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   5.0   5.0   7.0  -2.0   1.0   0.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.3%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons