Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222020 201103 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70    115.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.6  28.2  30.3  36.6  35.7  31.7  29.2  25.1  U  N  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  19.0  15.0  11.0   3.0   4.0  11.0  58.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        115.7 111.5 105.5  98.0  91.0  96.2  98.0  87.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     9.0   1.0   8.0  27.0  22.0  24.0  36.0  31.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  68.0  68.0  70.0  69.0  71.0  68.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   3.0   4.0   0.0  -1.0   3.0   4.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.0%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%