Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222020 201103 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70    114.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.6  31.4  39.6  46.1  48.3  54.7  49.9  40.4  N  U  U VU VU VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  10.0   5.0   2.0   1.0   3.0  10.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        113.6 107.4 103.5  98.0  96.2  98.0  91.0  47.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     5.0   8.0  41.0  10.0  31.0  60.0  11.0  -2.0  U  U  N  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  68.0  66.0  64.0  68.0  66.0  64.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0  -1.0  -4.0  -3.0  -5.0  -3.0  -2.0  N  N  N  F  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons