Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222020 201104 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.40    113.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.3  37.1  35.7  39.3  36.7  41.8  32.7  26.4  U  U  U  U  U VU  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  19.0  14.0  14.0   7.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        101.6  98.0  92.7  89.3  87.7  48.3  51.8  50.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    21.0  19.0  35.0  40.0  31.0   5.0 -13.0 -12.0  U  U  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  68.0  69.0  70.0  68.0  67.0  66.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  -1.0  -2.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons