Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222020 201104 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.30    112.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.3  28.5  29.1  26.9  20.1  18.8  14.7  14.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   3.0   2.0   5.0  11.0   8.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         91.0  86.1  87.7  91.0  75.8  47.4  29.6  21.6  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    57.0  69.0  51.0  39.0  36.0  19.0 -15.0 -32.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  69.0  65.0  65.0  62.0  63.0  63.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   3.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   9.0   8.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.2%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons