Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222020 201105 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.00    111.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.6  32.0  26.6  22.4  25.7  24.5  24.9  24.9  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   7.0   7.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  35.0  32.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         81.1  82.7  78.0  61.7  79.6 104.4  91.2 104.4  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    51.0  35.0  24.0   1.0 -13.0 -22.0   9.0   9.0  N  N  U  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  74.0  72.0  70.0  69.0  69.0  66.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   4.0   1.0   2.0   5.0   2.0   4.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons