Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222020 201105 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.00    110.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      3.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     66.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.3  21.1  23.1  24.0  23.9  23.9  23.9  23.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  49.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         71.7  63.8  99.4 120.7 122.9 122.9 122.9 122.9  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -7.0  -5.0 -17.0 -18.0 -17.0 -17.0 -17.0 -17.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  70.0  68.0  69.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0   5.0   3.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons