Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232020 201029 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.40    147.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     52.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.7  38.9  43.4  43.8  43.0  38.1  36.3  37.5  U  U VU VU VU  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  111.0 114.0 119.0 123.0 123.0 116.0 122.0 119.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  50.0  54.0  43.0  63.0  72.0  70.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  70.0  69.0  71.0  76.0  77.0  77.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   5.0   9.0   6.0   9.0   8.0   9.0   6.0  N  N  U  N  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        1.2%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        5.3%       10.8%        8.1%
 30kt / 24h        1.3%        2.4%        1.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        2.4%        1.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        1.8%       13.6%        7.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.8%        3.4%        2.1%
 55kt / 48h        8.6%        5.1%        6.9%
 70kt / 48h        6.1%        3.8%        4.9%
 65kt / 72h       40.5%       16.5%       28.5%