Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232020 201030 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.30    146.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     87.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     78.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.1  38.6  42.0  43.4  33.1  35.1  39.0  37.1  U  U VU VU  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   70.0  97.0 119.0 125.0  90.0 107.0 104.0  76.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    65.0  67.0  51.0  40.0  66.0  54.0  62.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  68.0  67.0  67.0  71.0  75.0  77.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   8.0   6.0  10.0  11.0  23.0  22.0  17.0  N  U  N  U  U VU VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        1.5%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        7.3%       14.5%       10.9%
 30kt / 24h        1.8%        4.3%        3.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        4.3%        2.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        2.3%        1.2%
 45kt / 36h        2.8%       19.3%       11.0%
 55kt / 36h        1.0%        5.6%        3.3%
 55kt / 48h        9.3%        7.9%        8.6%
 70kt / 48h        4.2%        4.9%        4.6%
 65kt / 72h       25.7%       13.2%       19.4%