Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232020 201030 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.30    143.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.3  41.3  43.8  36.9  32.2  35.7  35.8  35.4  U VU VU  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  123.0 122.0 121.0 118.0 121.0 117.0 110.0 110.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    67.0  51.0  40.0  54.0  65.0  76.0  61.0  87.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  65.0  69.0  70.0  74.0  76.0  78.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   6.0  10.0  10.0  19.0  23.0  16.0  16.0  U  N  U  U VU VU  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        0.9%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        4.6%        8.4%        6.5%
 30kt / 24h        1.6%        1.8%        1.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.6%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        3.8%       12.3%        8.1%
 55kt / 36h        2.0%        2.9%        2.5%
 55kt / 48h       12.6%        5.9%        9.3%
 70kt / 48h       12.2%        3.1%        7.6%
 65kt / 72h       50.1%       12.1%       31.1%