Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232020 201030 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.00    142.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     14.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.0  42.2  41.2  37.1  40.9  37.6  37.9  33.7  U VU VU  U VU  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  118.0  99.0  90.0  91.0 124.0 107.0  87.0  93.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  F
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0  40.0  41.0  51.0  43.0  42.0  43.0  24.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  72.0  70.0  73.0  78.0  78.0  77.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0  13.0  14.0  15.0  22.0  10.0   8.0   6.0  U  U  U  U VU  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.1%        1.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.5%        1.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        2.7%        1.5%        2.1%
 70kt / 48h        2.2%        0.5%        1.4%
 65kt / 72h       23.2%        3.7%       13.4%