Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232020 201031 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.30    139.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.8  33.4  32.3  33.1  35.5  30.3  27.9  29.8  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   93.0  97.0 111.0 120.0  88.0  70.0  74.0  81.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    55.0  56.0  36.0  40.0  42.0  61.0  49.0  37.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  76.0  73.0  72.0  69.0  68.0  69.0  70.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0   8.0   8.0  -9.0  -1.0   2.0 -10.0  N  N  U  U  F  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        1.2%        5.4%        3.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.3%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        1.4%        7.7%        4.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.7%        1.5%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h        6.7%        3.8%        5.2%
 70kt / 48h        5.6%        2.3%        4.0%
 65kt / 72h       35.1%       13.8%       24.4%